Long-time readers will know I made a lot of outperformance in the coal space in late 2007 through mid 2008. While everyone was in oil, I was pounding the table in the stealth rally in coal. [Dec 6, 2007: Coal Stocks Quietly in a Bull Market]

One name that was a very strange combination was Walter Industries (WLT), which at the time was a combo ‘housing/coal’ stock (yes, I’m serious). [May 1, 2008: Walter Industries - the Most Fascinating Company] Now they’ve refocused the business just as a coal pure play - specifically metallurgical coal (for steel).

Complete Story »

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Like many groups, insurance was highly shorted in late winter, and once momentum jumped in the group, investors betting against the group were crushed. Further helping insurance firms specifically was the government riding to the rescue TARP], ala commercial REITs, banks, et al. [Mar 12, 2009: The Next Big Bailout Choice - Insurance]

As I scan through stocks which are looking weak for potential short set ups, I am seeing a lot of weakness in this group all of the sudden. Even the best-run like Metlife (MET) or Travelers (TRV) are acting poorly. I’m not sure what this is signaling, but I am pointing it out. I know Doug Kass, for one, really likes this group on the long side, but I think his rationale is longer term.

Complete Story »

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<< Return to page 1 - Game Over

Complete Story »

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July 2, 2009

Maybe, maybe not—this is all I can say since bulls have repeatedly demonstrated their “energizer bunny” quality. Maybe over the weekend investors will forget about the sting of today’s drop as no doubt the powers that be will roll-out their spokesmen to cheer everyone up.

Complete Story »

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The fertilizer names have been much weaker than the commodity space as a whole… Thursday, they were green in a sea of red on a Russian price increase, but really Potash (POT) just warned of yet another production cut just 2 weeks ago. [Jun 17, 2009: Potash with Another Production Cut Hammering Fertilizer Names] We have short attention spans.

I see a low-risk short opportunity, and I want to begin expanding my short exposure with some of my cash. I still find "reflation" to be a tired, crowded trade and I think technology has a great chance to join it soon. But all in good time. I have almost no individual short exposure right now, so I am going to slowly build some as the "right shoulder" looks to be forming (slowly) in the head and shoulders pattern we discussed earlier this week.

Complete Story »

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I only have about a 0.4% stake in Illumina (ILMN), so I am going to take about a 8% loss on this last batch (stock is down about 10%) on the earnings warning. The stock had just been flopping around listlessly, so it was not a major position for us, thankfully.

A large gap has been created which is going to take time to work through and time is money. It’s not exactly a "value buyers" dream down here either as it is still rich…. valuations like this are based on continued excellence in execution and ILMN’s armor has been penetrated from that angle. The stock is down a lot less than in after hours Wednesday (when it was down -20%) unlike Myriad Genetics (MYGN) which was obliterated and down far worse than in the after hours the night before - so there is (relative) promise there.

Complete Story »

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General Motors is hoping to emerge from bankruptcy conduct an initial public offering sometime in 2010, according (subscription required) to The Wall Street Journal. The IPO could either raise additional capital for the company or allow the United States and Canadian governments to begin divesting their stakes in the company.

Washington has been mum on how and when it plans to begin recouping its “investment” in General Motors. Earlier this week on DailyFinance, Peter Cohan wrote that our investment in GM has mostly gone down the tubes: “On June 2, a day after it filed for bankruptcy, I estimated that the new General Motors would have to reach a value 20 percent above its all time high in order to repay the $50 billion government loan it received to keep it from having to liquidate. A month later, The Washington Post is out with a similar analysis, which agrees almost to the penny with my estimate. My conclusion then was that reaching this value is unlikely and that our money is mostly gone.”

Continue reading The hot new IPO of 2010: General Motors

The hot new IPO of 2010: General Motors originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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I just finished speaking with Jim Oberweis, president of Oberweis Asset Management and the editor of investment newsletter The Oberweis Report. Oberweis, whose newsletter recommends specific high growth small cap stocks, is rated among the top two investment advisory letters for 20 year performance, according to Hulbert Financial Digest. He says while technology stocks have been among the worst performing stocks for the past eight or nine years, this year they are best performing stocks in the Russell 2000 Growth Index.

This could be the beginning of a long awaited rebound.

Continue reading Tech stocks set for a rebound

Tech stocks set for a rebound originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Some days you know you have a winner, and some days you know you have a loser. Just like the loss of 473,000 jobs to 9.5% unemployment in June, today started as a losing day and ended up as a losing day. It feels as though the “lagging indicator” aspect of employment may lead us into a new leg-down in the recession. At least there was some bit of good news: bond yields came down.

Here were today’s closing bell levels:

Dow 8,306.21 -197.85 (-2.33%)
S&P 500 898.88 -24.45 (-2.65%)
Nasdaq 1,798.12 -47.60 (-2.58%)

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Continue reading Closing Bell: When the unemployed govern the markets (AIG, DSCO, FSLR, TIVO)

Closing Bell: When the unemployed govern the markets (AIG, DSCO, FSLR, TIVO) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), a software publisher which competes with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and distributes games for consoles from Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY), is a stock I own in a long-term account. I’ve been thinking about selling at times, but for now, I’m holding on. The long-term prospects still look good for the most part.

But, I had been looking at various trading ideas and wanted to capture a shorter-term gain for a trading account. The market has been so tough this year. When the recent rally in the indexes started, I didn’t want to become part of the group that was desperate to get in on the action, only to expose my portfolio to more risk than necessary. Believe me, when you’re afraid of missing a rally, you just might end up with some bad timing.

Continue reading My Activision Blizzard trade

My Activision Blizzard trade originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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